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The resistance axis faces three profound challenges to its regional influence. In fact, this self-characterization dropped significantly in value following the violent repression of the mass protests led by the Green Movement in June American military units seized oil refineries and infrastructure to ensure that the flow of crude oil did not cease.
The ongoing instability has already increased sectarian tensions and resulted in repeated armed clashes between pro- and anti-Assad militants in the northern city of Tripoli.
Neither side was willing to yield, despite eight years of constant warfare.
Mohns is a PhD fellow at the Centre for Contemporary Middle East Studies at the University of Southern Denmark. Bank is a research fellow with the Institute of Middle East Studies at GIGA, the German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
The Arab revolt has shaken the authoritarian status quo of central Middle Eastern states and contributed to a transformation in the regional power constellation and the dynamics of alliance-making.
From the mid-to-late s, Middle East regional politics had been characterized by a polarization between pro-Western status quo powers — mainly Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan — and an anti-Western resistance camp made up of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.
Turkey and Qatar, occupying a middle ground, made inroads as influential players in regional politics, particularly since Since the beginning of social protests in March and the massive state repression against them, Syria, under the authoritarian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, has changed from a key regional actor to an arena of regional politics.
As the "struggle for Syria redux" unfolds, analysts have paid relatively scant attention to the internal dynamics and developments of the resistance axis, the anti-Western alliance in which Syria has played such an integral part. The present article attempts to fill this lacuna by tracing the roots of the resistance axis and then examining how its constituents have responded to the Syrian revolt.
The term resistance axis jabhat al-muqawama designates the alliance among the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and the strongest Arab non-state actors, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas. Also, it does not constitute a formalized military alliance, one that would entail collective security in the event of a military confrontation involving one of its parties. The resistance axis is best understood as a political alliance based on common enemies.
These include a fundamental opposition to Israel, a rejection of Western mainly U. Each constituent of the resistance axis has pursued its own interests and made its own decisions in the international arena. None of them, despite considerable asymmetries in their military capabilities, has thus been able to exert hegemony over other axis members.
The analytical template of a resistance camp confronting pro-Western Arab powers has proven useful in highlighting some key dynamics in regional politics, like the continued importance of a transformed Arabism in the s. The notion that this group operates with a "militant consensus" has discouraged analysis of its individual actors and their divergent domestic and regional politics.
Often, the idea of consensus is inflamed by sensationalist discourse that makes it difficult to distinguish among the actors. This discourse promotes the most militant voices opposing Israeli and Western policies in the Middle East and crowds out alternative perspectives. Relations among members of the resistance axis, however, are dynamic and continually shifting in response to domestic, regional and international developments.
The interests of the Iranian and Syrian leaderships have differed substantially over time. While Iran has ruled out any dealings with Israel, Syria has repeatedly asserted its willingness to negotiate with its neighbor, and, given that certain conditions in a peace deal would be met, to normalize bilateral relations. In the aftermath of the U. As in Lebanon throughout the s and s, Syria and Iran followed conflicting agendas and backed different local players, with Iran supporting Nouri al-Maliki and Syria supporting Iyad Allawi in the December elections.
Sincea deepening of security and military cooperation among Hezbollah, Syria and Iran has taken place. This has led some pundits to argue for a transformation from political-strategic cooperation into a full-fledged military alliance.
Relations among the main actors of the resistance axis have fluctuated considerably. The course of those relations will be retraced with a particular focus on the nature of ties that Syria has maintained with Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.
Iran has provided Syria with weapons, cheap oil, investments and economic assistance. Syria has kept its supply routes open to Hezbollah and Hamas, thereby granting the Islamic Republic a stake in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, considered by some analysts as the central issue delineating the parameters of Iranian foreign policy in general.
From onwards, bilateral economic, educational and cultural cooperation reached unprecedented levels. In reaction to U. Bashar stated that their ties would grow stronger day by day, thereby sending the message that the Western courtship of Syria would not lead to a reshuffling of regional alliances.
The complex relations between Syria and Hezbollah have evolved considerably over the past 30 years. Following the Taif Agreement ofHezbollah adapted to Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, and the two worked out an arrangement enabling Hezbollah to hold onto its weapons.
It successfully portrayed itself as a stabilizing force in Lebanon and the sole actor capable of enforcing restraint on Hezbollah. The tables had turned. AfterSyria reaped more benefits from its association with Hezbollah than the other way around. It also enabled Syria to have a say in intra-Palestinian politics and thereby indirectly influence developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Its own direct means of exercising pressure on Israel were substantially reduced after the forced troop withdrawal from Lebanon in The "de-Palestinization" of the Palestinian issue in the s, directly associated with the progressive fragmentation of the Palestinian national movement and the failures of the peace process, allowed regional states like Syria and Iran to claim "guardianship" of the Palestinian cause.
That should not come as a surprise. Hamas is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, membership in which is punishable by death in Syria.
Throughout the Syrian revolt, which began in MarchIran has granted unconditional support to the regime of President Assad. Tehran has a genuine interest in keeping the regime in power, given that any succeeding government would likely reconsider its foreign policy, in general, and its strategic alliance with Iran, in particular. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Burhan Ghalioun, the former chairman of the opposition Syrian National Council SNCclaimed that a post-Assad government in Syria would reconsider its ties with Iran and Hezbollah and work to interrupt Iranian arms supplies to Hezbollah through Syria.
It echoes the narrative upheld by Assad that denounces the uprising as a foreign plot, orchestrated by the United States and Israel, and backed by its erstwhile regional Arab allies, primarily Saudi Arabia. The upheaval is portrayed as a blueprint of U. In fact, this self-characterization dropped significantly in value following the violent repression of the mass protests led by the Green Movement in June This reaction by the custodians of the Islamic Republic to the charge of election fraud affirmed not only a loss of legitimacy in the country but also region-wide.
It revealed the system as neither "Islamic" nor "republican," but just another authoritarian regime claiming power against the will of its own people.
Like Iran, Hezbollah maintains a stance toward the Syrian uprising that differs substantially from the verbal support it has given to all the others across the region. Hezbollah embedded the events into a wider narrative, starting with the Iranian Revolution, of oppressed peoples freeing themselves from Western-imposed imperialist shackles.
Such a scenario, he posited, could only be prevented through domestic dialogue. Assad still enjoys support from important sectors of Syrian society and loyalty among upper echelons of the security and military high command.
They argue that the Shii movement should not apply double standards in its policy toward the Arab uprisings. As a movement founded on principles of social justice and respect for the right to resist oppression, its support for a regime that violently cracks down on its own people would result in a severe blow to its credibility region-wide.
Instead, they believe, Hezbollah should become more vocal in its calls for the implementation of genuine political reforms. This view seems based on the rationale that a democratically elected government in Syria, based on a power-sharing agreement among numerous political forces, could prevent a single Sunni Islamist actor from monopolizing power, a scenario that Hezbollah regards as a threat to the current power balance in Lebanon.
The internal critics are counting on the commitment of the Syrian people to a "resistance" that would continue to support the struggle for the liberation of Arab lands from Israeli occupation even in a post-Assad context.
This is valid even if the movement has, as it has claimed, already diversified its supply lines. Yet equally important is the political fallout that regime change in Damascus would have for the Lebanese movement, resulting in severely constraining its ability to influence regional politics. The increasingly militarized uprising that has thrown wide parts of Syria into civil war might spill over into Lebanon.
The ongoing instability has already increased sectarian tensions and resulted in repeated armed clashes between pro- and anti-Assad militants in the northern city of Tripoli. Hamas is the only actor in the resistance axis that has clearly broken ranks as a result of the Syrian uprising.
The regime rejected his proposition. The statement sought to strike a neutral tone by expressing the hope that the Syrian people would find a political solution to the ongoing crisis. Early requests by Hamas of regional governments — namely Egypt, Qatar and Turkey — to allow it to officially open political headquarters in their capitals appear to have been denied. Both deals, negotiated by adversaries of the Syrian regime, were conducted without any consultation with Damascus.
Political scenarios in Syria of either a "controlled regime collapse" or a "soft landing" for the regime under President Assad become less likely by the day. If a direct military intervention develops, the conflict would likely spill over into the very fragile Lebanon, a scenario Hezbollah clearly wants to prevent.
It fears that a post-Assad government dominated by Sunnis could squeeze it between Damascus and its Lebanese Sunni political rivals, organized in the March 14 Coalition. When faced with a situation in which its ouster appeared imminent, the Assad regime might very well be willing to bring down "the whole temple. At the moment, there is little indication that the Shii movement would embark on such a course. It would entail major risks: Iran might prefer to keep Hezbollah on the leash, in anticipation of — and in order to deter — a possible Israeli strike against its nuclear facilities as well.
Still, the more Hezbollah and the Iranian leadership perceive the Syrian crisis as an existential struggle, the greater the risk that they will act militarily. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the Arab states at the forefront of efforts to topple the Syrian regime, are also those most prone to polarize Syrian society and frighten some of its key constituents.
Their priority is the removal of a pro-Iranian Arab regime, not a transition toward a more democratic Syria. The Iranian factor adds a further level of uncertainty to an already volatile situation and enhances the possibility of a spiraling conflict. Israel perceives that it faces a multilayered threat whose dimensions cannot be isolated from one another and which could evolve into a wider regional conflict.
At this moment, the maneuverability of the resistance axis depends heavily on Russia and China. The Western blend of outrage combined with economic and political sanctions is unlikely to loosen the Gordian knot. The resistance axis faces three profound challenges to its regional influence.
The increase in the importance of domestic issues in the Arab world in general has diminished significant portions of its regional political leverage. In fact, the rise of the power of Islamist movements across the region — in Egypt, Tunisia, and probably soon in Libya and Yemen — suggests that a new regional alliance, probably led by Qatar or Turkey, is in the making and Hamas is eager to join it.
Why the Assad Regime Is Likely to Survive to ," Middle East Policy 19, no. A Study of Post-War Arab PoliticsOxford University Press, For an overview of the Palestinian factions, cf. Anders Strindberg, "The Damascus-Based Alliance of Palestinian Forces: A Primer," Journal of Palestine Studies 29, no.
However, the influence of Amal and the Palestinian factions on the regional power equation is rather limited. Abbas William Samii, "A Stable Structure on Shifting Sands: Assessing the Hizbullah-Iran-Syria Relationship," Middle East Journal 62, no. Managing the Dilemma of Alliance," Middle East Journal 61, no. Rediscovering the Arab Dimension of Middle East Regional Politics," Review of International Studies 38, no. Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East I.
See Thomas Pierret, "Karbala in the Ummayad Mosque: The Changing Face of Terrorism I. Tauris, Why the Fall of Damascus Might Compel Hezbollah to Turn Inward," Foreign AffairsDecember 1,http: Outgrowing the Proxy Relationship," Washington Quarterly 30, no. PUF, and our own observations. On the Criminal Bombings in Syria," Hamas Media Office, December 24,http: Talk on Hamas and Syria: The Position of the Syrian Opposition Towards Palestine and the Hamas Movement," Al Jazeera Talk, February 21,http: On Presence of Hamas in Syria," Hamas Media Office, September 12,http: The Middle East Policy Council is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to contribute to American understanding of the political, economic and cultural issues that affect U.
Top Menu Donate ENewsletter Subscribe to the Journal Follow Us: End of the Resistance Axis? THE RESISTANCE AXIS The term resistance axis jabhat al-muqawama designates the alliance among the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and the strongest Arab non-state actors, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.
RESISTANCE ACTORS Iran: Caught Up in the Discursive Cage of Resistance Throughout the Syrian revolt, which began in MarchIran has granted unconditional support to the regime of President Assad.
AFTER THE AXIS Political scenarios in Syria of either a "controlled regime collapse" or a "soft landing" for the regime under President Assad become less likely by the day.
Donate to MEPC Today. About MEPC The Middle East Policy Council is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to contribute to American understanding of the political, economic and cultural issues that affect U. Latest Tweets Tweets by MidEastPolicy. Contact us Middle East Policy Council M Street NW Suite Washington, DC Phone:
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It also enabled Syria to have a say in intra-Palestinian politics and thereby indirectly influence developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Outgrowing the Proxy Relationship," Washington Quarterly 30, no. The Iranian factor adds a further level of uncertainty to an already volatile situation and enhances the possibility of a spiraling conflict. With the United States unwilling to export its own reserves of crude oil, China had become more aggressive in its negotiations.
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At the moment, there is little indication that the Shii movement would embark on such a course. In the aftermath of the U. SE-SKIDROW June 29, Football Manager Incl Touch And Editor-Repack June 29, Fallout New Vegas Ultimate Edition v1. However, the influence of Amal and the Palestinian factions on the regional power equation is rather limited.
Assad still enjoys support from important sectors of Syrian society and loyalty among upper echelons of the security and military high command. The upheaval is portrayed as a blueprint of U. Yet equally important is the political fallout that regime change in Damascus would have for the Lebanese movement, resulting in severely constraining its ability to influence regional politics. Top Menu Donate ENewsletter Subscribe to the Journal Follow Us: Switch Player Issue 5 FREE Digital Magazine 3h ago.
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The term resistance axis jabhat al-muqawama designates the alliance among the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and the strongest Arab non-state actors, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas. In response, the American government ordered West Tek to develop a Pan-Immunity Virion on September 15, Agree 1 Disagree 0.
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As a movement founded on principles of social justice and respect for the right to resist oppression, its support for a regime that violently cracks down on its own people would result in a severe blow to its credibility region-wide.
Each card in the pack has been uniquely illustrated to depict characters and factions found within the game. Views View Edit Edit source History. Relations among the main actors of the resistance axis have fluctuated considerably.
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